Monday, September 29, 2014
Female Board Nominees Increase
Since 2008, the number of female board nominees at S&P 500 companies has risen from 15 percent to 30 percent.
For Russell 3000 companies, the number of female board nominees has also
doubled over the same period, from 11 percent to 22 percent.
Surprisingly, even with the large increase in female nominees, the
number of female board members at S&P 500 companies has only risen
from 16.3 percent to 18.7 percent. The increase in female board members is international as the number of female board members in Great Britain and Canada has increased as well.
Friday, September 19, 2014
Tesla's EFN
Few companies publicly announce EFN numbers. However, today Goldman Sachs announced
that Tesla will likely need to raise at least $6 billion between 2017
and 2025. Tesla has currently raised $2.3 billion toward its $5 billion
gigawatt plant in Nevada. This outlay, combined with other projects that
the company has announced, indicate that Tesla will need to raise
significant capital over the next several years.
Changing Zs
The Altman Z-score is designed to measure the financial strength (or
lack thereof) for a company. But, as corporate financing decisions have
changed, so has the Z-score. Historically, a Z-score less than 1.8
indicated possible financial distress, but Edward Altman argues
that now negative Z-scores indicate financial difficulty. Currently,
there are are six companies in the S&P 500 with negative Z-scores.
Of course, the Z-score was designed to measure the financial strength of
manufacturing companies. For non-manufacturing firms, the Double Z Prime score is more appropriate
Investing In An Efficient Market
If we assume that the stock market is efficient, where should you
invest? In an efficient market, the best alternative is likely a passive
index fund. For example, funds that track the S&P 500 exactly mimic
the portfolio composition of the S&P 500. Stocks are bought or sold
only when changes are made to the companies included in the S&P
500. As a result, there is no management decision on which stocks to buy
or sell, so management costs are small and the return of the fund will
almost exactly track the S&P 500. With an actively managed fund, the
manager must outperform the market in order to offset the management
fees, a daunting if not impossible task in an efficient market. Eugene
Fama, the Nobel prize winning father of the efficient markets
hypothesis, argues
that a passive investment strategy is likely the best performer. And
none other than famed investor Warren Buffett has directed that most of
his wealth be invested in passive index funds after his death.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Buybacks Increase
Stock buybacks for the first six months of 2014 have reached $338.3 billion,
the largest amount in the first six months of a year since 2007. The
top repurchasers so far this year are Apple ($32.9 billion), IBM ($19.5
billion), and ExxonMobil, Pfizer, and Cisco, each with more than $9
billion in repurchases. Even more amazing is that companies spent 31 percent of the cash flow generated in the second quarter on buybacks.
We feel the textbook makes a compelling case that share repurchases
are a more tax efficient method of paying dividends. However, critics argue that share repurchases
are used to artificially boost stock prices and that management isn't
investing as much as it could in the business, which will hurt long-term growth.
Microsoft Buys Minecraft
Microsoft announced that it was buying Minecraft
company Mojang AB for $2.5 billion. The purchase is will likely help
Microsoft in the gaming console market and the mobile market. The
success of the acquisition also depends on whether the gaming industry is sustainable. In other words,
Minecraft may drive some users to Microsoft products, but the ultimate
success of the acquisition depends on Microsoft's ability to turn
Minecraft into a franchise game.
The SEC And Financial Reports
Financial scandals always seem to draw headlines, from Enron to Parmalat.
Regulations such as Sarbanes-Oxley have been enacted to help reduce the
likelihood of future financial scandals. With the additional tools, the
SEC has become more focused on efforts
to uncover financial fraud. For example, if a company impairs an asset,
the SEC will ask why a company didn't impair the asset earlier. The SEC
is also making sure that as company's financial statements have
year-to-year consistency, as well as whether a company's accounting is
consistent with industry practices.As a result, company management must
be familiar with the company's accounting procedures and internal
controls. Remember, the goal of the SEC is that a company accurately disclose its financial condition and risks
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Credit Risk Yield Spread Increases
In recent years, the yield spread for low-grade or junk bonds has been
relatively low. However, recent economic and Federal Reserve indicators
have led junk bond investors to demand a higher yield spread. For example,
Global Management LLC recently sold eight-year junk bonds with a coupon
rate of 9.25 percent. When the bonds were originally marketed, the
coupon rate was 8.5 to 8.75 percent. And AK Steel Holding had to
increase the coupon rate in its new bonds from 7.5 percent to 7.75
percent. For BofA Merrill Lynch, the yield spread that investors require
for that company's high yield debt has increased from 3.8 percent to
4.05 percent.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Macros For Excel
You may have noticed when you open the Excel Master files you have
downloaded, Excel will likely open the files in "Protected Mode". The
reason this happens is that Excel allows you to create macros. Macros
are a program written to eliminate the need to redo common tasks. For
example, you can create a macro to calculate the future value of a
growing annuity, a function that is not readily available in Excel.
However, in using a spreadsheet created by someone else, there is the
possibility that they have written a malicious macro in to the Excel
workbook. As this article
explains, using the Protected Mode allows you to see everything that is
coded into the workbook without allowing the workbook access to your
computer, thus preventing a malicious code from being loaded onto your
computer.
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
A Busy IPO Market
2014 may be the biggest year for IPOs
since 2000. One big IPO, Alibaba, is expected to raise about $20
billion on its own. But other deals have hit the market this year. For
example, there have been 51 biotech IPOs through September 2nd, an
increase of 113 percent over 2013. As many as 40 more IPOs are expected
to hit the market before the end of the year, which could bring the
amount raised in 2014 IPOS to $80 billion, the second largest IPO year
on record for funds raised.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Capital Budgeting For A College Degree
The decision to attend college is at least in part a capital budgeting
decision. A recent report by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York completed that analysis for us.
The NPV of a college degree today is about $273,000, down from a high
of $338,000 in 2001, but three times the 1980s NPV of $80,000. Additionally, the payback period today is about 10 years, much quicker than the 15 to 25 years during the 1970s. What about the IRR?
The IRR overall for a college degree is about 15 percent. Engineers have
the highest IRR at 21 percent, while education majors have the lowest
IRR at about 9 percent.
Capital Budgeting For A College Degree
The decision to attend college is at least in part a capital budgeting
decision. A recent report by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York completed that analysis for us.
The NPV of a college degree today is about $273,000, down from a high
of $338,000 in 2001, but three times the 1980s NPV of $80,000. Additionally, the payback period today is about 10 years, much quicker than the 15 to 25 years during the 1970s. What about the IRR?
The IRR overall for a college degree is about 15 percent. Engineers have
the highest IRR at 21 percent, while education majors have the lowest
IRR at about 9 percent.
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