Liquidity and Bankruptcy

As investors have learned, like any other investment, cryptocurrency is subject to volatility. The recent bankruptcy filing of crypto exchange FTX shows, this volatility can be extreme. For example, the Ontario Teachers' Pension plan wrote down $95 million due to the collapse. As you probably know, bankruptcy occurs when liabilities are greater than assets. However, bankruptcy can result from a finer distinction between liabilities and assets, namely liquidity. In the case of FTX, the company had $8.9 billion in liabilities and $9.6 billion in assets. So was the company forced to declare bankruptcy? Liquidity. When you look at the balance sheet, FTX had $900 million in liquid assets, $5.5 billion in less-liquid assets, and $3.2 billion in illiquid assets. Think about it like way: You owe $10,000 at the end of the week but your only asset is a $100,000 house. Yes, your assets are greater than liabilities, but you likely won't be able to sell the house and receive the cash for the sale by the end of the week, so you could be forced into bankruptcy. But FTX had other problems as well. John Ray, who was appointed to oversee the FTX bankruptcy and has overseen other large bankruptcies such as Enron, stated "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."

Inventory Spikes

During 2021, much of the talk concerning inventory surrounded shortages due to a variety of factors. In response, many companies increased production and orders to combat supply chain disruptions and increased consumer demand coming out of COVID-19 lockdowns. Now, it appears that companies have overshot demand as inventories have surged. For example, inventories for global manufacturing companies reached a record $1.87 trillion. As a result, inventory turnover for manufacturers increased to 81.1 days. And retailers are no different: Inventory for Macy's, Target, Walmart and other large retailers has increased from 17 to 45 percent compared to last year. This increased inventory is a boon for off-price retailers like Ross and TJ Maxx, which have a larger supply from big retailers offloading inventory. For many corporations, the excess inventory will likely negatively impact the bottom line. 

TIE Increases

As we discussed in the textbook, in general, there is no absolute number that is best for a particular financial ratio. However, when the economy is bad or uncertain, it is better if leverage ratios are more conservative to help avoid financial distress. During the COVID lockdowns, this is exactly what happened to the times interest earned (TIE) ratio for most companies. The median TIE increased from 6.1X prior to the pandemic to 8.6X during the pandemic. This was true even for below investment grade companies, which showed an increase in the TIE from 2.8X to 4.1X. Given that the cost of borrowing is beginning to rise, this bodes well for companies.

Kia's Home Run

When Kia debuted the Telluride, the company set production capacity at 60,000 units. Demand was so high that the company upped production to 100,000 units, but one couple has already waited 9 months for their SUV and they were told to expect another 5-6 month wait. A production shutdown due to COVID-19 has slowed delivery and once production restarted, a parts shortage still limited manufacturing. Obviously, sales of the Telluride is a best-case scenario for Kia, although production difficulties means the best-case has been limited to date. One other thing we want you to note is terminology. The article states that the turn rate was 11 days for most of the year, but it is currently at 0 days. The turn rate is the same as the days' sales in inventory ratio we discussed in the textbook.

Total Cost To Reward And Retain Employees

As we mentioned in the textbook, there are numerous other ratios that can be calculated and analyzed. The American Productivity & Control Center (APQC) is advocating a new ratio, the total cost to reward and retain employees (TCRRE). This ratio is calculated by summing costs for compensation, benefits, payroll processing, award/incentive administration, and employee assistance, divided by sales. In using this ratio, APQC argues that a low TCRRE ratio may indicate that a company may be spending too little on employees, which can result in lower morale or employee satisfaction. However, as with most other ratios, there is no absolute measure for this ratio. In this case, the ratio is determined in large part due to the company's size, culture, internal reward, and retention practices.

McDonald's Negative McEquity

A negative book value of equity is generally a bad sign as it often indicates a company has accumulated losses that have exceeded shareholder capital contributed. However, as with any other accounting number, it must not be taken at face value. For example, hamburger giant McDonald's has an interesting shareholder equity that indicates something entirely different. If you take a look, McDonald's Treasury stock has exceeded its retained earnings since 2016, which indicates that the company has repurchased more of its stock than it has reinvested from earnings. While this is a good thing for investors, it does create a problem when evaluating the company's financial ratios. For example, the ROE as calculated is negative, which is generally not good, but the 28 percent profit margin in 2018 is a very good sign.

The (Partial) Effects Of Tax Reform

With the U.S. corporate tax rate being among the highest among developed economies, there is discussion of corporate tax reform that would reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent, as well as the possibility of eliminating the deduction of interest expense entirely. So how would this affect corporate finance? A cut in the corporate tax rate on interest would reduce the attractiveness of debt as a form of financing, thereby reducing the amount of debt in the optimal corporate capital structure. One estimate is that the U.S. average debt-to-EBITDA ratio would drop from 4.1 to about 3 times, which would also affect the other financial leverage ratios. And the non-deductibility of interest expense would affect the calculation of the weighted average cost of capital. And, finally, at least for now, the decline in corporate debt will likely increase the credit rating for the remaining debt, driving the yield down on debt that does remain. All in all, major changes to U.S. based corporations.

PE Ratio Math

As we mentioned in the textbook, when you are examining ratios, it is important to not only learn if a ratio has changed, but why it has changed. A recent article about the PE ratio highlights our discussion. Most people believe that an increasing PE is due to an increasing stock price, but as with any fraction, a change can also occur due to a change in the denominator. Currently, the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is about 19, above the 5-year and 10-year averages of about 16. As a result, many market analysts are predicting a declining stock market. However, even with a falling PE ratio, stock prices can still increase as long as earnings per share increase at a faster rate than stock prices. While we are not predicting the stock market, the article does note there are many periods in stock market history that earnings growth exceeded stock price growth, PE multiples declined, yet the bull market continued.

Ratios And Lease Accounting

Beginning December 15, 2018, new FASB accounting standards will require public companies to include both capital and operating leases on balance sheets. Currently, only operating leases are reported. The effect of this new standard will be an increase in the reported value of assets and liabilities, which will result in an apparent overnight jump in the book value of many companies. According to one estimate, over $1 trillion will be added to balance sheets. Because of this increase in assets, several commonly ratios such as return on assets and the equity multiplier will be dramatically changed for companies that use lease financing. Of course, trained analysts have already been adjusting balance sheets for estimated lease liabilities. Although not mentioned in the article, there could be unintended consequences. For example, if a company has bonds containing a covenant that prohibit the company from exceeding a specific debt-equity ratio, the increase in liabilities could potentially cause a breach of that covenant.

Inventory Shortage Costs

What is the optimal days' sales in inventory? It depends! Too much in inventory will result in large opportunity costs. In other words, a company has cash tied up in inventory that costs the company money and does not earn a return. However, too little inventory can be problematic as the company can experience shortage costs. In this article, the costs of inventory shortages are explained. For example, although just-in-time delivery is popular, it does create problems in supply chain management. Not only does a company need to monitor its suppliers to ensure they will be able to meet obligations, but a company must also monitor the supplier of the company's supplier. A disruption at any point in the supply chain can result in an inventory shortage. So, how much does an supply chain disruption affect a company's value? One study indicates that supply chain disruption can reduce a company's value by up to 7 percent.

Russell 2000 Facts And Figures

A recent article about the Russell 2000 has some interesting facts and figures about the index. In case you don't know, the Russell 3000 index consists of the largest 3,000 stocks by market capitalization in the U.S. The Russell 2000 consists of the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index. So, the Russell 2000 is a small cap index. The largest company in the index has a market cap of $5 billion and the median market cap is about $528 million. What we found interesting in the article was several ratios. For example, the current PE ratio for the Russell 2000 index is 22.7, higher than the historical average of 16.2. And, the current price-sales ratio is 1.6, 67 percent higher than its historical average. As for sales, while only 64.3 percent of the sales for all S&P 500 companies comes from within the U.S., 81.3 percent of the total sales for Russell 2000 companies come from within the U.S.

Months' Payables Oustanding

Days' payables outstanding is frequently used to determine if a company pays its bills slowly, yet for for some companies, months' payables outstanding may be a better measure. CFO recently discussed 45 publicly traded companies that had an average days' payables outstanding of 212.3 days. The longest had a days' payable of 585.9 days, or almost 20 months!  Although the article touts a long payables period as beneficial because "the company is able to deploy cash to other uses," it is also forcing the company's suppliers to finance part of the company's operations.