An Overconfident Donald

One of the biases often discussed in behavioral finance is overconfidence, that is the belief your abilities are better than they are. Further, many people actually have overconfidence in individuals who tell everyone how good they are. Take Donald Trump. Although his wealth is estimated by Forbes at $4.1 billion, he recently stated that he was worth $10 billion as a self-made man (who started with his father’s millions.) And while his companies have filed bankruptcy four times, The Donald will tell you how good of an investor he is. Unfortunately, a recent article disputes this statement. If The Donald had taken his stated wealth of $500 million in 1982 and invested in the S&P 500, he would now have $20 billion, twice his stated worth. We hope you note a couple of important points. First, as we discuss in the textbook, the power of compounding greatly increases the value of a portfolio over time. Second, don’t always believe the hype of self-styled investment gurus.